How and Why Merdeka Center Are Right and Wrong

One finds the ruling government advertising in Malaysia Kini to get the message of their manifesto out. The above ties in with what Wong Chin Huat, too, said: “If the government is not expecting a tsunami, why did they deregister Bersatu?”

By Mustaqim Abdullah

Merdeka Center has the reputation to get the polls right. But a sound track record alone is running against a series of tell tale signals that are indeed pointing to a Malay Tsunami.

Google Analytics show that up to 8 million viewers have taken to reading MalaysiaKini each day, with a spike of 300 per cent of Malay readership alone. All of these were achieved before the pay wall to MalaysiaKini were removed.

If readership exponential is equivalent to five, this creates a potential readership base of 40 million (ie 8 million x 5). Any ruling government going into a general election where the entire country is relying on the news portal of a hard hitting news site cannot help but shiver at the prospect of facing a true defeat.

Not surprisingly, even quite oddly, one finds the ruling government advertising in Malaysia Kini to get the message of their manifesto out.

The above ties in with what Wong Chin Huat, too, said: “If the government is not expecting a tsunami, why did they deregister Bersatu?”

But there are three other reasons why a Malay tsunami is unstoppable. To begin with, those who claim to support Barisan National are supporters who have received some electoral trinket and hand outs. There is no telling that they will flip their votes.

Second, if the Malay support is “returning” to Barisan National, one would have to concede that they were displeased with Barisan National before too. Over the next 12 days, just as they have returned to Barisan National, they could easily swivel back to Pakatan Harapan——-granted that the opposition coalition is led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad, the former stalwart of UMNO.

Third, to the degree Pakatan Harapan holds it’s nerves, and continue to allow the election to remain festive, the milling of the crowds could turn from a surge to a swell——finally a tsunami of anti government voters.

All of the above are things that a static polling model cannot quite capture, especially when a sample is confined to 1500 people only.

Besides, when Merdeka Center had been right about the polls in 2008 and 2013, the polls were done without the narrative of 1MDB, the problems in Felda, indeed, MARA, and GST as a context and background too. If anything else, Merdeka Center has done the opposition a favor by under estimating the power of the Malay Tsunami, which in turns will trigger a Malay psychological reaction: Melayu Pantang Dicabar ! (Malays do not like to be challenged.)